A developmental state deferred? South Africa’s minibus taxi industry and the limits of state capacity

Résumé

South Africa’s minibus taxi industry carries the majority of public transport passengers yet remains informal, weakly regulated, and structurally marginalised. Examined through the lens of developmental state theory, the industry becomes an instructive case for understanding why the post-apartheid state has struggled to achieve its developmental ambitions. Developmental states typically possess high levels of bureaucratic capacity, institutional coherence, and the ability to steer economic sectors toward national development goals. In contrast, South Africa’s fragmented governance structures, neoliberal policy constraints, and inconsistent engagement with the taxi industry reveal a fundamental gap between developmental aspirations and institutional reality. This paper argues that the minibus taxi industry exposes the limits of South Africa’s capacity to function as a developmental state, highlighting weaknesses in state–industry coordination, planning, and regulatory authority.

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