Habitat suitability and distribution of endangered Ethiopian wolf (Canis simensis Ruppell 1840) and the potential effects of climate change on its habitat in the Ethiopian highlands

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Abstract An endangered Ethiopian wolf has been declining because of climate change coupled with various anthropogenic disturbances, resulted in restricted geographic distribution. Knowledge of the effects of these stressors on animal distribution is vital to promoting conservation campaigns and implementing effective management strategies. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to model habitat suitability of the Ethiopian wolf and project the potential effects of future climate changes on the predicted habitat distribution. We used to project changes in habitat distribution of a taxon under three shared socio-economic pathways (low (ssp126), intermediate (ssp245), and worst (ssp585)) future climate change scenarios. Our findings revealed the maximum temperature of the warmest month and ecoregion had the highest percent contributions, 65.4 and 16.1, respectively. The predicted potential suitable habitat under the current conditions was lower 2.45% (2779658 ha) compared to the total area of Ethiopia. The projected suitable areas of C. simensis under future climate change showed that an increase, range shifts, fragmentation, and small in availability were observed. To resolve these issues, habitat restoration, reduction of anthropogenic pressures, and climate change mitigation should be emphasized to improve the conservation of endemic species, including C. simensis. To further understand the possible implications of biotic variables on Ethiopian wolf habitat suitability and distribution, more research on the ecological niches of a taxon connected with its prey species overlap is needed.

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