Smallholder Farmers' Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability: Evidence from Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

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Abstract Climate change has resulted in significant agricultural losses and hardships, causing insecurity in the livelihoods of smallholder farmers and contributing to poverty in Ethiopia. This study investigates the vulnerabilities of three agroecologies in Ethiopia. The vulnerability assessment, conducted through a cross-sectional survey and spatial-temporal trend analysis using GIS, included 646 households. An overall vulnerability index was developed using a balanced weighted average method. Data from various sources were collected and analyzed employing the vulnerability index, ArcGIS 10.8, and ERDA's IMAGINE 2015. Utilizing the LVI-IPCC scale, the study identified immediate vulnerability to climate change across highland, midland, and lowland agroecological zones. The results indicated that households in different agroecological zones were susceptible to climate change impacts, with highland areas being the most sensitive and exposed, while, in terms of overall vulnerabilities, lowland households were the most vulnerable. The study highlighted insufficient health facilities, food, and water supplies in highland and lowland agroecologies. The study also found the shift from communal grazing land to private cultivation and plantations, especially eucalyptus, signaled a dynamic change in land use practices and aggravated the ecosystem's sensitivity to climate shocks. The study recommends implementing sustainable land use practices, afforestation, and climate-smart agriculture to address these changes. It emphasizes the importance of considering policy and interventions for conserving and rehabilitating shrubland, grazing land, and natural areas to ensure long-term socio-economic and ecosystem resilience.

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