Mathematical modeling and analysis of the contact tracing intervention to assess its impact on the control of epidemic dynamics

Résumé

We investigate the impact of contact tracing on the spread of transmissible diseases using compartmental models based on difference and differential equations. For epidemics with coincident latency and incubation, we explicitly formulate the effective reproduction number Re of an already developed ODE model with few adjustments, then study the effectiveness of contact tracing under different control scenarios. We fit the model and Re to data of the Ebola disease in Sierra Leone and Guinea, then provide an optimal control study to determine the best implementation along with related interventions. For epidemics with short latency, we propose an approach to model the contact tracing in a discrete-time epidemic model structured by disease-age. The model is fitted to data of COVID-19 during its early emergence in South Korea, Brazil, and Venezuela. Using the calibrated values of the parameters, we estimate both R0, the basic reproduction number, and Re. The relative change in the overall reproduction number caused by contact tracing show the same observed order pattern in performance intensity of the intervention within the three countries.

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