VOLATILITY OF SORGHUM PRODUCTION UNDER RAINFALL SYSTEM IN GADARIF STATE, SUDAN

Résumé

This paper aimed at analyzing the impact of the likely changes in rainfall on sorghum production under rain-fed mechanized farming system in Gadarif State of the Sudan. The study used monthly rainfall data for the period 1941-2014 and sorghum area, production and yield for the period 1970-2014. The data were analyzed by simple statistical and econometric regression methods. Generally, rainfall in Gadarif starts in May and ends by mid-October. The number of rainy days and volume (mm) of rain tended to decrease in June and peak up in July and August. The results indicated an increasing trend of rainfall mostly fallen during July and August during 1941-2014. The results also showed that dry rainfall years affected the productivity of sorghum reducing it by 4.9 kg/feddan/year and that floody rainfall years led to the decrease in the productivity by 11.3 kg/feddan/year, while it was decreasing by 3.39 kg/feddan/year in normal rainfall years. The study found a negative relationship between annual rainfall and crop production. Based on the results obtained, this study recommended concluded that identifying and implementing appropriate adaptation techniques to cope effects with the expected rainfall changes in the future.

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