Climatic variability and trends in Sudan’s savannah woodlands: implications for ecosystem resilience

Résumé

The impact of climate change on Savannah woodlands has increased variability in climatic variables, with significant effects and implications for the environment, the provision of ecosystem services, and human livelihoods. This study aimed to characterize the historical long-term trends in climate (temperature and rainfall) and their implications for Savannah woodlands’ biodiversity and ecosystem resilience across four protected areas in Sudan over 34 years (1988–2022). Mann-Kendall trend analysis and Sen’s slope were used to detect positive or negative trends in temperature and rainfall, while simple linear regression was used to assess temporal variation in tree and shrub diversity. Moreover, the standardized anomaly index was calculated to assess the variability in both temperature and rainfall over the study period (i.e., 34 years). The results showed that annual temperature has decreased by −0.010 °C ( p > 0.05) per year in the period between 1988 and 2022 in the study area. The annual rainfall has increased by 10.4 mm per year ( p < 0.05) during the study period. The years 2002 and 2004 experienced the highest position of rainfall deficit between 1988 and 2022. All areas exhibited interannual variability in mean annual rainfall, with a higher coefficient of variation observed at the Dinder station (60.63%). Furthermore, the region experienced alternating periods of cold and warm years, with the cold years spanning 2014 to 2022 and the warm years occurring between 1988 and 1999 and 2000 and 2013. These findings underscore the crucial need to raise awareness among stakeholders and policymakers on the potential impacts of climate change on forest biodiversity and ecosystem services. Hence, further efforts are needed to scale up adaptive strategies and strengthen ecosystem resilience in the face of ongoing climate variability and long-term environmental change.

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