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Estimating vaccine coverage in conflict settings using geospatial methods: a case study in Borno state, Nigeria

Article scientifique 2023 Anglais

Résumé

Reliable estimates of subnational vaccination coverage are critical to track progress towards global immunisation targets and ensure equitable health outcomes for all children. However, conflict can limit the reliability of coverage estimates from traditional household-based surveys due to an inability to sample in unsafe and insecure areas and increased uncertainty in underlying population estimates. In these situations, model-based geostatistical (MBG) approaches offer alternative coverage estimates for administrative units affected by conflict. We estimated first- and third-dose diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine coverage in Borno state, Nigeria, using a spatiotemporal MBG modelling approach, then compared these to estimates from recent conflict-affected, household-based surveys. We compared sampling cluster locations from recent household-based surveys to geolocated data on conflict locations and modelled spatial coverage estimates, while also investigating the importance of reliable population estimates when assessing coverage in conflict settings. These results demonstrate that geospatially-modelled coverage estimates can be a valuable additional tool to understand coverage in locations where conflict prevents representative sampling.

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Sbarra, A., Rolfe, S., Haeuser, E., Nguyen, J., Adamu, A., Adeyinka, D., Ajumobi, O., Akunna, C., Amusa, G., Dahiru, T., Ekholuenetale, M., Esezobor, C., Fowobaje, K., Hay, S., Ibeneme, C., Ibitoye, S., Ilesanmi, O., Kayode, G., Krohn, K., Lim, S., Medeiros, L., Mohammed, S., Nwatah, V., Okoro, A., Olagunju, A., Olusanya, B., Osarenotor, O., Owolabi, M., Pickering, B., Sufiyan, M., Uzochukwu, B., Walker, A., Mosser, J. (2023). Estimating vaccine coverage in conflict settings using geospatial methods: a case study in Borno state, Nigeria. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-37947-8

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Auteur(s)

Alyssa N. Sbarra Sam Rolfe Emily Haeuser Jason Q. Nguyen Aishatu L. Adamu Daniel A Adeyinka Olufemi Ajumobi Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna Ganiyu Amusa Tukur Dahiru Michael Ekholuenetale Christopher Imokhuede Esezobor Kayode Raphael Fowobaje Simon I Hay Charles Ugochukwu Ibeneme Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi Gbenga A Kayode Kris J Krohn Stephen S Lim Lara Costa Tavares de Medeiros Shafiu Mohammed Vincent Ebuka Nwatah Anselm Okoro Andrew T Olagunju Bolajoko O. Olusanya Osayomwanbo Osarenotor Mayowa Owolabi Brandon V. Pickering Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan Benjamin Uzochukwu Ally Walker Jonathan F Mosser

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