Investigating connections between economic diversification, climate change, renewable energy and agriculture in MENA countries: new findings from the panel CS-ARDSL model

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Introduction Agriculture remains a vital sector for economic development and food security in MENA countries, yet it faces increasing challenges from climate change. At the same time, economic diversification and renewable energy development may offer opportunities to enhance agricultural performance. This study examines the relationships among agricultural value added, economic diversification, climate change, and renewable energy in MENA countries over the period 1993–2022. Methods The study employs the Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS–ARDL) model, which accounts for cross-sectional dependence among countries and allows for heterogeneous short- and long-run dynamics across panel members. Results The findings indicate that economic diversification exerts a positive immediate effect on agricultural value added. In contrast, climate change negatively affects agricultural value added in the long run. Renewable energy is found to promote agricultural value added in both the short and long run, highlighting its role in supporting agricultural productivity and resilience. Discussion The results suggest that strengthening renewable energy adoption and implementing effective economic diversification strategies can contribute to sustainable agricultural development in the MENA region. Furthermore, policies aimed at mitigating climate change impacts and enhancing climate adaptation are essential to safeguard long-term agricultural performance and food security.

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