Green loans, green mortgages, and CO₂ emissions in Nigeria: Evidence from ARDL (2012 –2024)
Résumé
This study finds that green loans and green mortgages are positively and statistically significantly associated with CO₂ emissions in Nigeria, contrary to their intended role in climate mitigation. Using annual time-series data from 2012 to 2024 obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and the World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI), the study examines the effect of loan-based climate finance on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, with gross domestic product per capita included as a control variable. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework is employed due to its suitability for small samples and mixed orders of integration. The Pesaran et al. (2001) bounds testing approach confirms the existence of a long-run relationship, and the model is re-specified as an error-correction model (ECM) to capture short-run dynamics and long-run adjustment. The results show that green loans and green mortgages increase emissions in the long run, while short-run effects are weak and largely insignificant. The error-correction term is negative and statistically significant, indicating adjustment toward the long-run equilibrium. These findings suggest that existing green credit instruments in Nigeria have not yet translated into measurable emissions reduction, reflecting weaknesses in credit targeting and monitoring. The study highlights the need for clearer classification standards, stronger regulatory oversight, and improved monitoring frameworks to ensure that climate finance effectively supports emissions reduction objectives.
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