Navigating aid and climate pressures to achieve food security in Somalia

Résumé

Abstract Food security in Somalia remains a critical concern due to prolonged conflict, climate shocks, and economic instability. Recurrent droughts and floods have disrupted agricultural production, while insecurity has restricted access to markets and humanitarian assistance, resulting in widespread food shortages and high malnutrition rates. This study examines the dynamic relationship between foreign aid, climate variables, conflict, and food security in Somalia using annual time-series data from 1990 to 2020. The study employs several econometric models, such as an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR). The long-run empirical findings indicate that food aid, average rainfall, and conflict have significantly undermined food security, whereas humanitarian aid significantly enhances food security. Average temperature shows an insignificant effect. In the short run, rainfall and conflict significantly worsen food security, while food aid, humanitarian aid, and temperature remain statistically insignificant. The results highlight the importance of reforming food aid modalities, strengthening humanitarian assistance, addressing conflict, and promoting climate-resilient agricultural strategies to enhance food security in Somalia.

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