Political stability and the timing of rapid urbanization: a cross-country survival analysis for sustainable urban development
Résumé
Introduction Urbanization research has largely focused on levels and growth rates, with limited attention to the timing of rapid urban transitions. Yet, understanding when countries enter phases of accelerated urban growth is critical for sustainable planning and SDG 11. This study examines whether political stability influences the timing of rapid urbanization. Methods The study employs annual data for 13 countries from 2006 to 2023 sourced from the World Development Indicators. Rapid urbanization is defined as the first year in which urban population growth reaches or exceeds 3 percent. A survival analysis framework is applied to model transition timing under right-censoring. Kaplan–Meier estimators are used to examine differences in survival patterns across institutional contexts, while Cox proportional hazards models estimate the effects of political stability, rule of law, GDP growth, and gross fixed capital formation. Results Non-parametric results indicate significant heterogeneity in urban transition timing across countries, with politically weaker governance environments exhibiting shorter survival durations prior to rapid urbanization. However, in the multivariate Cox framework, political stability and rule of law do not exert statistically significant direct effects. Economic growth shows stronger directional association with earlier transition timing, although results are sensitive to model specification and sample constraints. Discussion The findings suggest that rapid urbanization is primarily shaped by macroeconomic conditions, while governance indicators influence transition timing in more structural and context-dependent ways rather than as direct predictors. The study contributes a survival-based framework for analyzing urban transition timing and highlights the importance of temporal dynamics in understanding global urbanization processes.
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