Analyses of the First 410 days of COVID-19 Trend and Mortality in Africa: Interpretation, Implications and Recommendations

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Abstract Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also referred to as COVID-19 initially spread from Europe to Africa. On the 14th of February 2020, the African continent reported its first COVID-19 case in Egypt. Other African countries such as Algeria, Nigeria, and Senegal subsequently reported their first cases a few weeks later. The spread and the resulting mortality from COVID-19 has been disproportionate over the African continent. Aim In this study, we look into the trend and progression of COVID-19, in terms of morbidity (number of confirmed cases) and mortality, over a specified period within a designated geographic area. Review of this data enabled the identification of unique characteristics of this pandemic in the five designated regions of the African continent. Method We analyzed the mortality that resulted from COVID-19 infection and the trend of spread during the time period (3 January 2020 -31 March 2021). We further use the data to explore and forecast COVID-19 trends in these African countries using time series analysis and centre moving averages (CMA) in Microsoft Excel statistical package. Results In Northern Africa, Egypt had the highest number of cumulative cases and deaths (cases: 201432 and deaths: 11956) by the 31st of March 2021. For the other four regions of the African continent Nigeria (cases: 162762 and deaths: 2056) in West Africa; Ethiopia (cases: 204521 and deaths: 2841) in the Eastern region; Cameroon (cases: 47669) and deaths: 721) in Central Africa. And South Africa (cases: 1546735 and deaths: 52788) in the Southern region reported the highest cumulative cases and deaths at the same point in time. Based on these results, comparative forecasts were made in terms of the expected period and fatality of subsequent waves of COVID 19. Conclusion While there should be caution in interpreting data from the African continent, the reported findings could lend itself to productive scientific inquiry and interpretations. Africa need to consider various implementable approaches to managing this pandemic without creating another epidemic due to neglect of other components of her health priorities. Implications were inferred and recommendations were made in the interest of the continent and global community of Nations.

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