A novel mathematical model for transmission dynamics of HPV and cervical cancer progression with cancer-reliant awareness

Résumé

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a global health problem that causes the vast majority of cervical cancers. { A novel mathematical model for HPV, as it progresses to cervical cancer, was formulated using a system of six ordinary differential equations that incorporates behavioural dynamics in the description of some control measures. In particular, this study introduces a novel chained dependency framework where the awareness parameter depends on Cancer burden, and the screening rate is a function of awareness}. The essential epidemiological features of the model, such as the positivity and boundedness of the model, the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$, the disease-free equilibrium, and the endemic equilibrium, are derived. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be locally and globally asymptotically stable when $\mathcal{R}_0 < 1$. The endemic level of infection is expressed in terms of $\mathcal{R}_0$, and deductions are made from their relationship. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine which parameters are of utmost importance using a global sensitivity analysis method called the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) method. Parameters are set from the literature, and simulation is carried out using the Runge--Kutta 4th order (RK4) method to explore the impact of various parameters on model dynamics. { The results of the analyses not only reveal the impact of awareness campaigns, routine screening programmes, and vaccination in reducing HPV and cervical cancer, but also demonstrate how improved disease outcomes are directly linked to the chained awareness screening structure rather than the usual epidemic dynamics.

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