From Oil to Sterling: How Commodity Equity Signals Stabilize Currency Volatility in a Post-Crisis Economy

Résumé

This paper develops a stochastic model to examine how oil-linked equity prices influence the volatility of the British pound in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Drawing on behavioral macroeconomic insights and post-crisis empirical data, the study identifies a forward-looking feedback loop whereby oil sector valuations amplify or stabilize currency fluctuations through expectations-driven dynamics. Using a discrete-time stochastic process, we find that oil-related stocks function as automatic stabilizers by internalizing external shocks and moderating exchange rate volatility. These findings bridge the gap between commodity-currency literature and Keynesian macro-financial theory, demonstrating the potential of sector-specific financial instruments to mitigate instability under conditions of uncertainty and hysteresis.

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