New approach into human health risk assessment associated with heavy metals in surface water and groundwater using Monte Carlo Method

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Abstract This study assessed the environmental and health risks associated with heavy metals in the water resources of Egypt's northwestern desert. The current approaches included the Spearman correlation matrix, principal component analysis, and cluster analysis to identify pollution sources and quality-controlling factors. Various indices (HPI, MI, HQ, HI, and CR) were applied to evaluate environmental and human health risks. Additionally, the Monte Carlo method was employed for probabilistic carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk assessment via oral and dermal exposure routes in adults and children. Notably, all water resources exhibited high pollution risks with HPI and MI values exceeding permissible limits (HPI > 100 and MI > 6), respectively. Furthermore, HI oral values indicated significant non-carcinogenic risks to both adults and children, while dermal contact posed a high risk to 19.4% of samples for adults and 77.6% of samples for children (HI > 1). Most water samples exhibited CR values exceeding 1 × 10 –4 for Cd, Cr, and Pb, suggesting vulnerability to carcinogenic effects in both age groups. Monte Carlo simulations reinforced these findings, indicating a significant carcinogenic impact on children and adults. Consequently, comprehensive water treatment measures are urgently needed to mitigate carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risks in Siwa Oasis.

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