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The basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa

Article scientifique 2022 Anglais

Résumé

The pandemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) took the world by surprise. Following the first outbreak of COVID-19 in December 2019, several models have been developed to study and understand its transmission dynamics. Although the spread of COVID-19 is being slowed down by vaccination and other interventions, there is still a need to have a clear understanding of the evolution of the pandemic across countries, states and communities. To this end, there is a need to have a clearer picture of the initial spread of the disease in different regions. In this project, we used a simple SEIR model and a Bayesian inference framework to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa. Our estimates vary between 1.98 (Sudan) and 9.66 (Mauritius), with a median of 3.67 (90% CrI: 3.31-4.12). The estimates provided in this paper will help to inform COVID-19 modeling in the respective countries/regions.

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Iyaniwura, S., Rabiu, M., David, J., Kong, J. (2022). The basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264455

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Auteur(s)

Sarafa A. Iyaniwura Musa Rabiu Jummy David Jude Dzevela Kong

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