Prediction of chick sex using egg morphometric measurements in Venda and Potchefstroom Koekoek chickens

Résumé

Introduction Sex ratio management is an important aspect of flock productivity in smallholder poultry systems. However, early determination of chick sex remains challenging in low-input production systems where advanced sexing technologies are not readily available. This study evaluated the potential of egg morphometric measurements to predict chick sex in Venda and Potchefstroom Koekoek chickens. Methods A total of 130 eggs (65 per breed) were collected from breeding stocks maintained at the Agricultural Research Council – Animal Production, Irene, South Africa. Egg morphometric traits, including egg weight, width, length, circumference, shape index, volume, equatorial radius, and equatorial area, were measured prior to incubation. Eggs were incubated under standard conditions, and chick sex was determined after hatching using the vent sexing method. Differences between breeds were analysed using the general linear model procedure, while binary logistic regression was used to assess the predictive ability of egg morphometric traits for chick sex. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to evaluate model performance. Results Significant differences in egg morphometric characteristics were observed between breeds, with Potchefstroom Koekoek eggs generally larger than Venda eggs (P < 0.05). However, no significant differences were detected between eggs producing male and female chicks within either breed (P > 0.05). Logistic regression analysis identified egg weight and shape index as statistically significant predictors of female chick hatch, although the magnitude of these effects was small. Breed-specific ROC analysis indicated limited predictive accuracy of egg morphometric traits for chick sex. The Venda model demonstrated moderate performance (AUC = 0.667), whereas the Potchefstroom Koekoek model showed poor performance (AUC = 0.559). Both models exhibited high specificity but low sensitivity. Discussion and conclusion Although certain egg morphometric traits showed statistical associations with chick sex, their predictive ability was insufficient for practical application. The limited accuracy observed in both breeds suggests that egg morphometric measurements alone cannot reliably predict chick sex and are therefore not a viable method for early sex determination in resource-constrained poultry production systems.

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