Time to recovery and its predictors among pediatric patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia admitted to public general hospitals in Tigray, Ethiopia, 2025: A prospective follow-up study

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BACKGROUND: Globally, pneumonia is a major cause of illness and death in children, with over 1,400 cases per 100,000 children each year. In sub-Saharan Africa, pneumonia is responsible for approximately 172 deaths per 1,000 live births. Ethiopia has the fifth highest mortality rate from pneumonia among children under five, especially severe community-acquired pneumonia. In Ethiopia, there are limited prospective follow-up studies on time to recovery and its predictors among pediatric patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia. However, no prospective follow-up study conducted on time to recovery and its predictors among pediatric patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia admitted to public general hospitals of Tigray. METHODS: A prospective follow-up study was conducted among 305 children using consecutive sampling to select the study participants from December 20, 2024, to February 20, 2025. The collected data were entered into Epi-Data version 4.7 and then exported to STATA version 14 for further statistical analysis. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to estimate recovery time. Both bivariable and multivariable Cox regression models were applied to analyze the data. Finally, the results were reported with 95% confidence intervals, and variables with a p-value < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. RESULT: The recovery rate among pediatric patients was 85.2%, with a median recovery time of 5 days. The overall incidence of recovery rate was 16.30 per 100 person days observation (95% CI: 14.43-18.40). Being rural residence (AHR = 0.69;95%CI (0.53-0.90), late presenter to seeking care (AHR = 0.56; 95% CI (0.35-0.88), absence of danger sign (AHR = 1.48; 95% CI: 1.07-2.05)), absence of comorbidity (AHR = 3.02; 95% CI: 2.15-4.22) and not receiving oxygen therapy (AHR = 1.71; 95% CI: 1.20-2.41), were significant predictors. CONCLUSIONS: The median recovery time of patients was considerably high. Rural residence, late presentation for care, absence of danger signs, absence of comorbidity, and not receiving oxygen therapy were statistically significant predictors of recovery time.

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