Opuntia ficus-indica under climatic pressure: evapotranspiration dynamics and adaptive resilience in semi-arid Tunisia

Résumé

Introduction Land degradation and increasing aridity threaten the sustainability of Mediterranean dryland agro-ecosystems, where water scarcity and climate variability are expected to intensify. This study examines the potential of Opuntia ficus-indica (OFI) as a climate-resilient crop in Central Tunisia, analyzing its response to historical and projected hydroclimatic changes and assessing its resilience and water requirements under future climate scenarios. Methods Observed climate records (19822005) and projections from six bias-corrected CORDEX Regional Climate Models were used to analyze air temperature ( T air ) and precipitation variability in the semi-arid regions of Kasserine and Thala. To assess implications for crop water demand, historical and projected crop evapotranspiration ( ET c ) fluxes of OFI were also analyzed. Results and discussion Historical hydroclimatic trends reveal significant precipitation declines (up to 55%) accompanied by increasing T air , indicating ongoing aridification. Future projections (2052–2100) suggest further intensification, with precipitation decreasing by 45–60% and mean annual T air rising by 0.3–0.7 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. A marked seasonal pattern was observed in ET c , with minimum winter values (0.41–0.50 mm d −1 ) and summer peaks reaching 4.49 mm day −1 in Kasserine and 4.18 mm d −1 in Thala regions. Future projections indicate moderate increases in ET c of 1–14% under RCP4.5 and up to 18% under RCP8.5 compared with historical conditions. This will lead to summer peaks of 4.69 mm d −1 (RCP4.5) and 4.89 mm d −1 (RCP8.5) in Kasserine, and 4.47 and 4.74 mm d −1 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, in Thala. Under these scenarios, OFI is expected to maintain its ecological tolerance due to its high water-use efficiency, highlighting its potential for climate-resilient agriculture and land restoration in Mediterranean semi-arid environments.

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