Rethinking climate vulnerability in livestock systems: evidence from exposure, adaptation, and within-system heterogeneity in West Africa

Résumé

Climate vulnerability in livestock systems is often assumed to be intrinsically linked to production system characteristics. This study challenges this assumption by examining the relative roles of exposure, adaptive capacity, and production systems in shaping vulnerability outcomes in West Africa. Using household-level data from 1,126 livestock producers in Benin, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire, we construct a Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) combining exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We employ a stepwise econometric approach based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models, complemented by variance decomposition analysis, to assess the determinants of vulnerability. The results show that while semi-intensive and transhumant systems initially appear more vulnerable than sedentary systems, these differences diminish once exposure and adaptive capacity are accounted for. Exposure significantly increases vulnerability, whereas adaptive capacity exerts a strong mitigating effect. Contrary to common assumptions, no significant interaction or non-linear effects are found, suggesting that vulnerability is driven by additive and linear processes. Furthermore, the analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity within production systems, with more than 97% of the variation in vulnerability occurring within systems rather than between them. These findings provide strong evidence that climate vulnerability is not system-driven but process-driven, shaped primarily by the balance between environmental stress and adaptive capacity. The study contributes to the literature by highlighting the limits of system-based classifications and emphasizing the importance of household-level conditions. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that reducing vulnerability requires strengthening adaptive capacity and addressing exposure, rather than promoting specific livestock production systems. This calls for more context-sensitive and targeted adaptation strategies in West African livestock systems.

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