Predicting severe stunting and its determinants among under-five in Eastern African Countries: A machine learning algorithms

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INTRODUCTION: Severe stunting is one of the primary public health challenges in LMIC including Eastern African Countries, which affects millions of children. In addition, it was a major contributor for mortality and related complication of children aged under five. However, there is limited study conducted severe form of stunting by employing Machine learning (ML) in Eastern African Countries. Therefore, our study was demonstrated to predict and identify its major determinants using ML algorithms, furthermore, to improve model explainablity. Our study used Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP) and ARM to identify the determinants of severe stunting among under-five. METHODS: cross-sectional study was conducted using DHS data from 2012-2022 in East Africa. 136,074 children were the source populations, and 76,019 children were the study population. Data were analyzed using Python version 3.7 and R version 4.3.3 for data preprocessing, modeling, and statistical analysis. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy and AUC. Furthermore, the SHAP analysis and ARM was used to further explain and interpret the determinants of severe stunting among children under five. RESULTS: The Random Forest performed the best in this analysis, with an accuracy of 87% and an AUC score of 0.83. The analysis indicated that women's who do not practicing exclusive breastfeeding (SHAP value = +0.41), being from Burundi (SHAP value = +0.04), children being underweight (SHAP value = +0.25), lived in poor household (SHAP value = +0.40), child gender being male(SHAP value = +0.23), mothers height being short (SHAP value = +0.03), mothers being underweight (SHAP value = +0.18), child size at birth being small (SHAP value = +0.21), women's being delivered in home(SHAP value = +0.07), mothers education being primary (SHAP value = +0.20), unimproved toilet (SHAP value = +0.06), distance to health facility being a big problem (SHAP value = +0.02), were associated with increase the risk of severe stunting among under five. CONCLUSION: The Random Forest was the best-performing model for predicting severe stunting in Eastern African countries. To decrease the effects of severe stunting, integrated interventions should provide support for mothers with lower socioeconomic conditions, strengthen maternal education, empower women to practice exclusive breastfeeding, encourage facility deliveries, increase access for households to sanitary facilities, provide education on personal and environmental hygiene, provide mothers with information on the importance of complementary feeding for children as well as for the mothers, and provide near health facilities for mothers and essential care services.

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