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Epidemiological characteristics and vaccination impact scenario modelling of concurrent Clade I mpox outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi

Article scientifique 2026 Autre

Résumé

Abstract In 2024, mpox cases surged in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) with cross-border spread to Burundi. We developed a transmission-dynamic model calibrated against surveillance data to understand drivers in enzootic (Clade Ia) and non-enzootic (Clade Ib) areas, and the potential impact of vaccination. In non-enzootic areas we estimated that 58-84% of transmission occurred within sexual networks. MVA-BN vaccination of sex workers could have averted 91% (95% CrI 81%–98%) of infections in Sud Kivu (DRC) but only 35% (95% CrI 26%–47%) in Bujumbura (Burundi), due to later outbreak detection. In historically enzootic Equateur (DRC), ongoing zoonotic spillover best explained sustained incidence. There, pledged Lc18m8 vaccines could have averted 42% (95% CrI 40%–46%) of infections; prioritising children improved impact. Across all settings, doubling vaccine coverage by using a single dose of MVA-BN outperformed two-dose strategies. Timely detection and tailored vaccination strategies are critical to reducing mpox burden.

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McCabe, R., Knock, E., Halliday, A., Cox, V., Mesa, D., Chopra, K., Ajong, B., Bizimana, J., Kalonji-Mukendi, T., Kamatari, O., Leng, T., Maddren, R., Mavoko, H., Mbala, P., Morel, G., Nkengurutse, L., Nsavyimana, O., Nyandwi, J., Parchani, K., Pham, A., Rawson, T., Shaw, A., Whittaker, C., Ghani, A., Ferguson, N., Niyukuri, D., Whittles, L. (2026). Epidemiological characteristics and vaccination impact scenario modelling of concurrent Clade I mpox outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.02.24.26346883

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Auteur(s)

Ruth McCabe Edward Knock Alba Halliday Victoria Mary Cox Daniela Olivera Mesa Kieran Chopra Brian Ngongheh Ajong Jean Claude Bizimana Thierry Kalonji-Mukendi Olivier Kamatari Trystan Leng Rosie Maddren Hypolite Muhindo Mavoko Placide Mbala Guillaume Morel Liliane Nkengurutse Odette Nsavyimana Joseph Nyandwi Kanchan Parchani Anh Pham Thomas Rawson Alex Shaw Charles Whittaker Azra C. Ghani Neil M. Ferguson David Niyukuri Lilith K. Whittles

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