Survival and Predictors of Mortality among Breast Cancer Patients Diagnosed at Hawassa Comprehensive Specialized and Teaching Hospital and Private Oncology Clinic in Southern Ethiopia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

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Abstract Background: Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death in over 100 countries. Despite the high burden of the problem, the survival status and the predictors for mortality are not yet determined well in Ethiopia. Therefore, we aimed to determine the survival and predictors of mortality among breast cancer patients diagnosed from 2013-2018 at Hawassa comprehensive specialized and teaching hospital and private oncology clinic in Southern Ethiopia.Methods: Hospital-based retrospective cohort study of 302 patients was conducted. Data was collected on breast cancer patients diagnosed from January, 1st, 2013 to December, 30th, 2018 using a data extraction checklist and by telephone interview. The median survival was estimated by Kaplan- Meier. Log Rank test was used to compare survival among groups. Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors. Results were repaired as hazard ratio (HR) along with the corresponding 95% CI. Sensitivity analysis was done with the assumption of loss to follow-ups (LTF) might die 3 months after the last hospital visit. Results: Advanced stage diagnosis of breast cancer was found on 83.4 % of patients with breast cancer. The study participants were followed for a total of 4685.62 person-months. Their median survival was 50.61 months (IQR=18.38-50.80) which declined to 30.57 months in the worst-case analysis (WCA). The overall survival of patients at two years was 73.2% and it declines to 51.3 % in the worst-case analysis. Rural residence (AHR=2.71, 95% CI: 1.44, 5.09), travel time >7 hours (AHR=3.42, 95% CI: 1.05, 11.10), duration of symptom 7-23 months (AHR=2.63, 95% CI: 1.22, 5.64), > 23 months (AHR=2.37, 95% CI: 1.00, 5.59), advanced stage (AHR=3.01, 95% CI: 1.05, 8.59) and not taking chemotherapy (AHR=6.69, 95% CI: 2.20, 20.30) were independent predictors of death. Conclusion: Above two-third of the patients have two years of overall survival in south Ethiopia. Rural residence, advanced stage, and poor adherence to chemotherapy were independent predictors of death. Thus, Improving early detection, diagnosis, and treatment capacity of breast cancer patients are an important way-outs to avert the problem with appropriate intervention means.

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