A mathematical framework for literacy, agriculture, and poverty dynamics in Malawi

Résumé

Malawi's economy is predominantly agrarian, and agriculture plays a central role in national development. Agriculture contributes 25–30% of GDP, generates more than 80% of export earnings, and provides employment for over 70% of the population, largely through smallholder systems. Despite this importance, agricultural productivity remains low and closely linked to persistent poverty and limited literacy. With an adult literacy rate of about 68% and disproportionately high illiteracy among rural women (up to 35.2%), understanding how literacy interacts with agricultural performance and poverty becomes essential. However, many existing studies examine these factors separately, overlooking their feedback relationships under resource constraints. In this study, we develop a mathematical framework to examine how changes in literacy influence agricultural productivity and household poverty dynamics over time in Malawi. The model is a structurally closed, deterministic system linking literacy, agricultural productivity, and resource adequacy through feedback relationships, capturing equilibrium behavior and systemic sensitivity. The model integrates demographic, educational, and agricultural components to capture system behavior under different scenarios, and parameter values were informed by national statistics and international databases, including the Malawi National Statistical Office and the World Bank. Empirical validation is performed using a copula-based approach to quantify the dependence structure among literacy, productivity, and poverty, accounting for nonlinear interactions and stochastic fluctuations. The results reveal thresholds at which improvements in literacy translate into productivity gains and gradual reductions in poverty, highlighting policy opportunities that jointly target education and agricultural development to support sustainable poverty reduction.

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