Intimate partner violence trajectories over a 1-year period in a population-based cohort of women in Kenya: associations with individual and community normative factors

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INTRODUCTION: The global evidence base on intimate partner violence (IPV) prevalence and risk factors is predominantly cross-sectional, limiting clarity in changes over time. Prospective cohort data can inform trajectories, as is needed to guide prevention efforts. AIMS: This study characterises (1) the prevalence of past-year IPV and trajectories among a cohort at two time points spanning 1 year and (2) individual and household factors associated with physical and/or sexual IPV, and IPV trajectories, adjusting for and stratifying on community-level norms that endorse IPV justification. METHODS: ). The analytic sample restricts to married or partner-cohabiting women with complete IPV data at both time points (n=2499). County-level IPV justification norms were computed from Kenya 2022 Demographic and Health Survey data. Descriptive and multivariable regression characterise IPV prevalence, trajectories and help-seeking over 12 months, and associations of individual, dyad and community-normative factors on any IPV and trajectories. RESULTS: From 2020 to 2021, the prevalence of any past-year physical and/or sexual IPV increased slightly from 11.4% to 12.5%. Over the 12-month period, 8% of women had IPV newly begun, 4% had sustained IPV at both time points, 7% had IPV resolved by 2021 and 81% were IPV-free across time points. Norms that justify physical IPV at the county level influenced associations with trajectories and risk. Generally, individual-level factors were more associated with IPV in settings where IPV justification was less normative. Help-seeking was not associated with IPV cessation. CONCLUSION: Overall IPV prevalence persisted over a 1-year period, with dynamic movement in and out of safety, illustrating the unmet needs for prevention and response. Social norms appear to 'activate' individual and household IPV risk factors, affirming the need to address the norms that perpetuate IPV.

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