Vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of rural communities to climate change impacts on water supply in the Upper Zambezi River Basin
Résumé
Climate-related water insecurity is a significant concern for rural communities in western Zambia; however, evidence on how social conditions influence household vulnerability to unreliable water supplies in the Upper Zambezi River Basin remains limited. This study assessed vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of rural communities facing climate-related water stress in four wards of the basin. A convergent mixed-methods design was employed, combining a household survey of 205 respondents with 12 semi-structured key informant interviews. A Social Vulnerability Index was constructed from 10 retained indicators capturing household sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and water-access conditions. Qualitative interviews were thematically analysed to explain drought experience, gendered water-collection burdens, local coping strategies, and barriers to adaptation. Mean ward-level Social Vulnerability Index scores ranged from 0.38 in Sikuyu to 0.52 in Nakanya, indicating high but spatially differentiated social vulnerability. Drought, low rainfall, and extreme heat were the most frequently reported hydroclimatic stresses. Households commonly depended on shallow wells, river water, and other unprotected sources during the dry season. Women and girls carried a disproportionate burden of water collection, while poverty, weak infrastructure, and limited access to climate information constrained adaptation. The findings show that climate-related water insecurity in the Upper Zambezi River Basin is shaped by both hydroclimatic stress and underlying social vulnerability. Strengthening protected water sources, climate information services, local water governance, and gender-responsive adaptation planning is essential for improving rural water resilience.
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