Climate change as a macro-financial risk multiplier: evidence from private sector credit in fragile sub-Saharan Africa

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Introduction Climate change poses significant risks to economic resilience, particularly in fragile Sub-Saharan African economies where financial systems are shallow and livelihoods are climate-sensitive. This study examines how extreme heat exposure, rainfall conditions, and drought intensity are associated with private sector credit provision in fragile Sub-Saharan African economies over 2000–2022. Methods The study uses data from the World Development Indicators and the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Using CIPS unit root and Westerlund cointegration tests, the analysis applies a panel ARDL Pooled Mean Group (PMG) model, with FMOLS, Dynamic Fixed Effects (DFE), and Common Correlated Effects (CCE) as robustness checks. Results The results show that climate hazards are associated with weaker credit provision. Extreme heat exposure is negative and significant in both the long run and short run, rainfall is also negative and significant, while drought intensity is negative in the long run but not significant in the short run. Among control variables, trade openness supports credit provision, while inflation constrains it. The error-correction term confirms convergence to the long-run relationship. Discussion These findings suggest that climate shocks affect credit conditions through their impact on economic activity and macroeconomic stability, supporting the view that climate change acts as a macro-financial risk multiplier in fragile economies.

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