Investor attention and stock market volatility: Does geopolitical risk matter?

Résumé

This study investigates how geopolitical risk moderates the relationship between investor attention and stock market volatility in both emerging and developed markets. To achieve this objective, the GARCH-MIDAS model is employed to decompose daily market returns into short- and long-term volatility components. The Google Search Volume Index is used as a proxy for investor attention along with country-specific geopolitical risk indices which are assessed for the period spanning from 2014 to 2023. The findings reveal that the effect of investor attention on stock market volatility is not uniform but instead varies across and within developed and emerging markets. Furthermore, GPR is found to be a crucial factor that can either weaken, magnify, or change the nature of the relationship between investor attention and volatility depending on the surveyed economy. The findings highlight the critical role of geopolitical risk in shaping market dynamics, suggesting that both investors and policymakers should incorporate geopolitical factors in risk management and portfolio strategies. The study contributes to existing literature by providing a novel perspective on how geopolitical risk moderates the relationship between investor attention and market volatility, utilizing a comparative analysis across different economic regions, which has not been done before.

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