Is Conservation Agriculture Viable in Namibia? A System Dynamics Model and Environmental Cost-Benefit Analysis
Résumé
Conservation agriculture (CA) has been touted as a means to increase resilience and conserve the environment. However, adoption of CA in Namibia has been slow. This study, therefore, evaluates the environmental and economic viability of CA using data from Mashare Irrigation Farm. An environmental cost-benefit analysis (ECBA) for maize and wheat production under four scenarios: conventional farming (CF) without (CF1) and with (CF2) environmental costs, and CA production farming systems without (CA1) and with (CA2) environmental benefits. A system dynamics model was developed with net present value (NPV) over 20 years (2023-2042) to assess the viability of the models. The study finds that although CA is financially viable in Namibia, it is only when environmental externalities (benefits and costs to the community) are incorporated that CA becomes preferable to CF. CF1 (conventional farming) produced an NPV of N$11.4 million, CF2 (CF with environmental costs) -$N52 million, while CA produced an NPV of $5 million (CA1) without environmental benefits, and N$51 million with environmental benefits (CA2). These benefits would be difficult to “sell” to farmers considering a switch, and a regulatory solution may be needed to facilitate the adoption of more sustainable farming practices.
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