Progress to 2030: Uganda’s off-grid electrification lessons for data-driven regulation across Sub-Saharan Africa

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Abstract Uganda’s electricity access landscape has shifted toward a hybrid model in which decentralised off-grid technologies now serve a share of households comparable to the national grid. Recent census data indicate that 53% of households use some form of electricity, with 28% relying on off-grid solutions and 25% connected to the grid. While access has expanded rapidly, regulatory frameworks have not evolved at the same pace, creating risks related to product quality, affordability, and service accountability. This study examines how regulatory arrangements shape consumer outcomes in Uganda’s off-grid sector, using a mixed-methods case study that combines household surveys across four districts ( n = 405) with interviews with 32 key informants, including regulators, energy providers, and financiers. Findings identify three interlocking regulatory gaps: limited post-import quality enforcement, high costs of instalment financing structures, and the absence of routine performance reporting to regulators. Sixty-eight per cent of off-grid users reported at least one technical fault in the preceding year, and most current users opted for cash purchases despite the availability of instalment plans, reflecting concerns about total repayment costs and lock-out risks. Stakeholders further confirmed that no national multi-tier framework-based operational database exists to systematically monitor off-grid service levels. The study therefore recommends mandatory field-based performance verification, harmonised service-quality reporting standards, and licence-linked data-sharing requirements to strengthen regulatory oversight and sustain equitable progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7.

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