Simultaneous modeling of maize smallholder farmers’ perceived vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

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Abstract Maize smallholder farmers face a threat from climate change, resulting in decreased agricultural productivity, a disruption in the agricultural calendar, and crop diseases. The purpose of this research was to analyze maize farmers' perceptions of climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. A structured survey of 210 maize smallholder farmers in South Kivu Province was conducted between October and November 2021. The data were analyzed using simultaneous modeling with the Tobit regression model and structural equations, which demonstrated that demographic and socioeconomic factors influenced farmers' perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change. The findings revealed that the level of education, size of the field, and activities of the household head had significant effects on climate change perception and adaptation strategies. Farmers' perceptions had a negative (p < 1%) influence on maize smallholder farmers' adaptation to climate change. Common efforts should be made to encourage farmers to feel committed enough to implement climate change adaptation measures that are effective in mitigating or preventing climate change risk.

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