Geospatial Modeling of Socio-Economic and Environmental Determinants of Typhoid Fever in Kano State, Nigeria

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Abstract Typhoid is a significant health problem, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria where access to sanitation is still a challenge. This study modeled the socio-economic and environmental determinants of typhoid fever in Kano State, the most populated state located in the northwestern part of Nigeria. Data was collected from the State Hospital Management Board after submitting the requirement for ethical approval. Landsat 8 image was downloaded from an open-source website USGS earth explorer and Kano state administrative boundaries from GRID3 websites. Land use/land cover maps and Kano priority data were collected from the Department of Geography, Bayero University Kano. The study used 6 variables: literacy rate, population density, housing density, urbanization, NDVI, and LST to model typhoid fever. Based on the study’s findings the Kano Municipal, Gaya, Gezewa and Bebeji recorded the highest prevalence per 10,000 persons of above 300. That there is a significant association between 5 of the 6 factors (with exception of land surface temperature (LST)). Out of the 5 factors, 4 showed positive significance (literacy rate, Population Density, Household density, and Percentage Urban) while the mean NDVI is the only one that showed a negative significance. The coefficient of determination (R square) is < 0.5 (0.374488) which showed the variable poorly described the prevalence rate. The model was also found to be biased because the Jarque-Bera Statistic is statistically significant which means the study is missing one or more key explanatory variables. It was recommended that the government should invest more in Data acquisition to help improve the quality of research in the study area.

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