An Optimization-Based Criteria Weighting for MCDA: Scenario Analysis and Application to Moroccan Pension Systems

Résumé

The sustainability of pension systems has emerged as a critical political concern, particularly in nations where demographic changes and financial imbalances threaten their long-term survival. Pension systems in Morocco have structural problems that make it necessary to have strict evaluation and decision-making procedures. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods are used to facilitate decision-making on complex problems such as pension issues. Although MCDA methods are often used for these purposes, a big problem is still figuring out the weights of the criteria, which are often based on personal opinions or methods that do not make sense. This paper proposes an optimization-based framework for criteria weighting in MCDA applications to enhance objectivity and methodological rigor, facilitating the integration of strategy-driven priorities via scenario-based analysis. The resulting optimized weights are integrated into both the Weighted Sum Method (WSM) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method to evaluate and rank Moroccan pension systems using economic, demographic, and social criteria. Sensitivity and robustness evaluations validate the consistency of the results amidst alterations in the weighting scheme. The proposed framework enhances transparency, robustness, and reproducibility in MCDA applications and provides a structured decision-support tool for pension reform policy.

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