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Spread and seasonality of COVID-19 pandemic confirmed cases in sub-Saharan Africa: experience from Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda

Article scientifique 2023 Anglais

Résumé

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the world negatively with huge health and socioeconomic consequences. This study estimated the seasonality, trajectory, and projection of COVID-19 cases to understand the dynamics of the disease spread and inform response interventions. Method Descriptive analysis of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 2020 to 12 th March 2022 was conducted in four purposefully selected sub-Saharan African countries (Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Senegal, and Uganda). We extrapolated the COVID-19 data from (2020 to 2022) to 2023 using a trigonometric time series model. A decomposition time series method was used to examine the seasonality in the data. Results Nigeria had the highest rate of spread (β) of COVID-19 (β = 381.2) while DRC had the least rate (β = 119.4). DRC, Uganda, and Senegal had a similar pattern of COVID-19 spread from the onset through December 2020. The average doubling time in COVID-19 case count was highest in Uganda (148 days) and least in Nigeria (83 days). A seasonal variation was found in the COVID-19 data for all four countries but the timing of the cases showed some variations across countries. More cases are expected in the 1 st (January-March) and 3 rd (July–September) quarters of the year in Nigeria and Senegal, and in the 2 nd (April-June) and 3 rd (October-December) quarters in DRC and Uganda. Conclusion Our findings show a seasonality that may warrant consideration for COVID-19 periodic interventions in the peak seasons in the preparedness and response strategies.

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Adebowale, A., Afolabi, R., Bello, S., Salawu, M., Bamgboye, E., Adeoye, I., Dairo, M., Kivumbi, B., Wanyana, I., Seck, I., Diallo, I., Leye, M., Bassoum, O., Fall, M., Ndejjo, R., Kabwama, S., Mapatano, M., Bosonkie, M., Egbende, L., Namale, A., Kizito, S., Wanyenze, R., Fawole, O. (2023). Spread and seasonality of COVID-19 pandemic confirmed cases in sub-Saharan Africa: experience from Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-023-08168-1

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Auteur(s)

Ayo Stephen Adebowale Rotimi Felix Afolabi Segun Bello Mobolaji M. Salawu Eniola Bamgboye Ikeola A. Adeoye Magbagbeola David Dairo Betty Kivumbi Irene Wanyana Ibrahima Seck Issakha Diallo Mamadou M. M. Leye Oumar Bassoum Mane Fall Rawlance Ndejjo Steven Ndugwa Kabwama Mala Ali Mapatano Marc Bosonkie Landry Egbende Alice Namale Susan Kizito Rhoda K. Wanyenze Olufunmilayo I. Fawole

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