Reserve allocation dynamics and dedollarization in BRICS economies: evidence from asymmetric causality tests
Résumé
Introduction This paper investigates the ongoing dedollarization process in BRICS countries, defined as a strategic effort to reduce reliance on the US dollar in trade, international reserves, and financial transactions. It examines the main drivers of this transition, including geopolitical tensions, economic sanctions, and the pursuit of greater monetary autonomy, while assessing its implications for the international monetary system. Methods The study employs an asymmetric causality framework to examine the dynamic relationship between economic growth and the composition of international reserves, with particular attention to gold reserves and US dollar-denominated reserves in BRICS countries. Results The findings indicate that during periods of positive economic growth, BRICS countries tend to increase their gold reserves rather than their holdings of US dollar-denominated reserves. Furthermore, positive GDP growth is not associated with a proportional increase in dollar reserves, providing empirical support for the dedollarization hypothesis. However, the results also reveal persistent structural constraints, including the continued global dominance of the US dollar and the absence of fully credible alternative reserve currencies. Discussion These findings suggest that although BRICS countries are making measurable progress toward reducing dependence on the US dollar, the transition remains gradual and constrained by the existing architecture of the international monetary system. The study highlights the broader implications of dedollarization for the future evolution and stability of the global monetary order.
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