An approach for Assessing the Investment Viability of Innovative Power Technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Risk-Based Appraisal of Small Modular Reactors in Cameroon

Résumé

Sub-Saharan African power systems face persistent access and reliability constraints under high financing costs, making the viability of capital-intensive firm low-carbon generation highly dependent on de-risking. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are increasingly proposed for medium-sized grids, yet decision-relevant evidence remains limited because nuclear is rarely included in cross-country financing datasets and many assessments use stylized discount rates. This paper addresses these gaps through a two-stage financial modelling approach. First, a peer-reviewed cost-of-capital framework is extended to derive country-level costs of capital for nuclear and SMRs across Africa, yielding continent-wide averages of 14.5% (mature large nuclear) and 15.4% (FOAK SMRs). Second, these financing conditions are translated into project-finance outcomes for Cameroon using a FINPLAN cash-flow appraisal of a FOAK 420 MW SMR, benchmarked against firm hydropower anchored on the 420 MW Nachtigal project. At a reference tariff of 65 €/MWh and 15% discounting, the SMR is strongly unviable (project NPV −951 M€; IRR 7.1%; DSCR_min 0.59) and implies an affordability gap (LCOE=170 €/MWh). Sensitivities show SMR deployability requires either single-digit effective WACC (NPV > 0 only below 7%) or a much higher tariff (176 €/MWh at 15%), alongside major FOAK CAPEX reduction and strict schedule/IDC risk control. Hydropower remains near the affordability frontier, supporting hydro-led transition pathways in Cameroon.

Citer ce document

Accès au document

Texte intégral en lecture en ligne, réservé aux abonnés SPHAERO et aux membres de l'institution. Se connecter

Auteur(s)

Statistiques

Consultations : 1

Téléchargements : 0