Long memory and trend in time series of precipitation in Mozambique

Résumé

Abstract Many climate studies in Mozambique have clearly identified signals of climate change, especially changes in the extreme temperatures. In this study, we have investigated the existence of long term correlations and trend in time series of precipitation. Two databases were used for this purpose: in situ observations along the period of 1960 – 2020 and the Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations dataset, which is a high resolution (0.05o) remote sensing data assimilated with in situ stations, along the period from 1981 to 2021. We have applied the rescaled-range analysis and the detrended fluctuation analysis for long memory investigation, and the linear regression and Mann-Kendall methods for trend analysis. Results have shown the existence of long memory in the time series of precipitation in most parts of Mozambique, being stronger in the southern and central regions, and weakening toward the north of the country. Precipitation has generally exhibited persistency in the southern and central regions, indicating that the observed climate behaviour during the evaluated period is likely to continue for a long period in future. On the other hand, some significant trend signals of precipitation were detected in some isolated areas of Mozambique, presenting an increase in some regions such as the southern part of Manica and eastern of Inhambane provinces, and a decrease in other regions such as the coastal areas of Zambezia and Nampula.

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