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Spread and Seasonality of COVID-19 Pandemic Confirmed Cases in sub-Saharan Africa: Experience from Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda

Article scientifique 2022 Anglais

Résumé

Abstract Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the world negatively with huge health and socioeconomic consequences. This study estimated the seasonality, trajectory, and projection of COVID-19 cases to understand the dynamics of the disease spread and inform response interventions. Method: Descriptive analysis of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 2020 to 12th March 2022 was conducted in four purposefully selected sub-Saharan African countries (Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Senegal, and Uganda). We extrapolated the COVID-19 data from (2020 to 2022) to 2023 using trigonometric time series model. A decomposition time series method was used to examine the seasonality in the data. Results: Nigeria had the highest rate of spread (β) of COVID-19 (β=381.2) while DRC had the least rate (β=119.4). DRC, Uganda, and Senegal had a similar pattern of COVID-19 spread from the onset through December, 2020. The average doubling time in COVID-19 case-count was highest in Uganda (148 days) and least in Nigeria (83 days). A seasonal variation was found in the COVID-19 data for all the four countries but the timing of the cases showed some variations across countries. More cases are expected in the 1st (January-March) and 3rd (July-September) quarters of the year in Nigeria and Senegal, and in the 2nd (April-June) and 3rd (October-December) quarters in DRC and Uganda. Conclusion: Our findings show a seasonality which may warrant a consideration for COVID-19 periodic interventions in the peak seasons in the preparedness and response strategies.

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Adebowale, A., Afolabi, R., Bello, S., Salawu, M., Bamgboye, E., Adeoye, I., Dairo, M., Fawole, O., Kivumbi, B., Wanyana, I., Seck, I., Diallo, I., Lèye, M., Bassoum, O., Fall, M., Ndejjo, R., Kabwama, S., Mapatano, M., Bosonkie, M., Egbende, L., Namale, A., Kizito, S., Wanyenze, R. (2022). Spread and Seasonality of COVID-19 Pandemic Confirmed Cases in sub-Saharan Africa: Experience from Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2310046/v1

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Auteur(s)

Ayo Stephen Adebowale Rotimi Felix Afolabi Segun Bello Mobolaji M. Salawu Eniola Bamgboye Ikeola A. Adeoye Magbagbeola David Dairo Olufunmilayo I. Fawole Betty Kivumbi Irene Wanyana Ibrahima Seck Issakha Diallo Mamadou Makhtar Mbacké Lèye Oumar Bassoum Mane Fall Rawlance Ndejjo Steven Ndugwa Kabwama Mala Ali Mapatano Marc Bosonkie Landry Egbende Alice Namale Susan Kizito Rhoda K. Wanyenze

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