Corridor statecraft: connectivity without integration in the Horn of Africa
Résumé
The Horn of Africa is frequently framed as an emerging frontier of infrastructure-led transformation, yet this narrative obscures a deeper structural contradiction: the expansion of transport corridors has not produced corresponding regional integration. This article advances the concept of Corridor Statecraft to explain how infrastructure in the Horn functions as a geopolitical instrument through which states and external actors organize selective connectivity, shape economic dependency, and reconfigure regional order. Drawing on the Regional Infrastructure Master Plan of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), comparative analysis of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the European Union (EU), and corridor-level analysis, the article demonstrates that the region is not converging toward integration but fragmenting into a competitive, externally mediated, multi-corridor system. The analysis identifies three interlocking constraints: weak regional institutional coordination, particularly within IGAD; Ethiopia’s restrictive market structure, which limits the transformation of regional value chains; and unresolved political realities, including Somalia’s prolonged instability and Somaliland’s exclusion from formal frameworks. Within this context, the Berbera Corridor emerges as a critical case, illustrating both the strategic potential of diversification and the political constraints that shape its trajectory. The article argues that these dynamics are not unique to the Horn but reflect a broader shift in the global political economy, in which infrastructure expansion increasingly shapes regional dynamics, producing fragmented regionalism rather than integrated markets. It concludes that, in the absence of institutional alignment and political reform, the Horn is likely to evolve into a geopolitically segmented corridor system by 2050. More broadly, the study challenges conventional regionalism theory by demonstrating that connectivity without governance does not produce coherent regional integration but generates fragmented, geopolitically mediated connectivity.
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