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Changes in the impact of tropical basin interactions on Cape Verde tropical cyclogenesis

Article scientifique 2026 Anglais

Résumé

Abstract The interannual variability of tropical Atlantic cyclones (TCs) has been linked to ENSO and the Atlantic Meridional Mode. Recent studies have also highlighted the role of the equatorial Atlantic in influencing Cape Verde TCs. However, the stationarity of these teleconnections has not yet been thoroughly examined. In this work, running correlations between the anomalous frequency of TCs originating in the Cape Verde region and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), reveal a shift in recent decades. Although the overall frequency of Atlantic TCs has increased since the 2000’s, changes in atmospheric and oceanic background conditions have weakened the influence of SSTs on Cape Verde TCs. Furthermore, our assessment of eddy kinetic energy as an indicator of African easterly wave activity suggests that, in the context of global warming, the predictive power of sea surface temperatures may be diminished.

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Badiane, A., Losada, T., Rodríguez‐Fonseca, B., Dieng, A., Fall, C., Gaye, A., Sall, S. (2026). Changes in the impact of tropical basin interactions on Cape Verde tropical cyclogenesis. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01332-9

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Auteur(s)

Adama Badiane Teresa Losada Belén Rodríguez‐Fonseca Abdou Lahat Dieng Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall Amadou Thierno Gaye Saïdou Moustapha Sall

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