Accès ouvert

Evaluation of Preventive Measures and Forecasting of COVID-19 Infection: Case Study Egypt.

Article scientifique 2022 Anglais

Résumé

Abstract Background COVID-19 is a highly infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. This article assessed the effectiveness of preventive measures of COVID-19 infection, including social distancing (SD) and quarantine (Q) of patients and contacts in Egypt. Methods A simple model was developed to predict the infection rate without preventive measures. The article utilizes fertile meta- heuristic technique and particle swarm optimization (PSO), to predict the growth of the disease. Results A correlation between the predicted and actual infected cases, validated the proposed forecasting algorithm. Preventive measures together with the Egyptian Government stay home order reduced 98% of expected infections. PSO analyses showed that infection and death rates will continue to increase particularly with lifting these restrictive preventive measures. Conclusions The advised PSO model could predict COVID-19 infection and death rates with high degree of accuracy. This prediction model could help health authorities in decision making.

Citer ce document

Khaled, S., Hafez, A. (2022). Evaluation of Preventive Measures and Forecasting of COVID-19 Infection: Case Study Egypt.. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1231157/v1

Accès au document

Voir sur le dépôt source

Ce document est hébergé sur son dépôt institutionnel d'origine.

Auteur(s)

Safaa A. A. Khaled Ahmed A. Hafez

Statistiques

Consultations : 1

Téléchargements : 0