An ARDL approach to assessing the impact of climate variability on freshwater resource availability and community vulnerability in Somaliland’s arid and semi-arid regions
Résumé
Background Climate variability poses an existential threat to freshwater resources in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in fragile states like Somaliland where data scarcity hinders effective policy formulation. While the theoretical link between climate change and water stress is well-established, there is limited empirical evidence quantifying the specific impacts of climatic shifts on groundwater availability and community vulnerability in this context. This study aims to fill this gap by systematically assessing the long-run and short-run linkages between climate variables, freshwater resource depletion, and socio-economic vulnerability. Methods The study employed a longitudinal design utilizing time-series data spanning from 1990 to 2020. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach was applied to investigate the dynamic relationships between Borehole Water Levels (BWL) and independent variables, including Annual Rainfall (RF), Mean Temperature (TP), Evapotranspiration (ETR), Poverty Rates (POV), and Livelihood Diversification Index (LDI). Diagnostic tests, including Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) for unit roots, and CUSUM/CUSUMSQ for stability, were conducted to ensure model robustness. Results The ARDL bounds test confirmed a significant long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables (F-statistic = 5.85). Long-run estimates revealed that a 1% increase in Mean Temperature and Evapotranspiration leads to a significant decrease in Borehole Water Levels by 0.80 and 0.60%, respectively. Conversely, Rainfall showed a positive elasticity of 0.35%. Socio-economic indicators demonstrated that increased Poverty Rates negatively impact water availability (−0.25%), while Livelihood Diversification exerts a positive influence (+0.15%). The Error Correction Term (−0.45) indicated a rapid adjustment speed, correcting 45% of disequilibrium annually. Conclusion The findings provide robust empirical evidence that rising temperatures and socio-economic fragility are key drivers of freshwater depletion in Somaliland. The study concludes that reliance on rainfall alone is insufficient for water security. Consequently, there is an urgent need for Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) strategies, investment in climate-resilient infrastructure, and policies that promote livelihood diversification to enhance community resilience against the escalating impacts of climate change.
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