A Mathematical Characterisation of COVID-19 in Mauritius

Résumé

Since the advent of COVID-19, a fair amount of work has been undertaken by researchers around the world to model its progression. It became clear from the start of pandemic that its progression is affected by numerous factors within different communities. Subsequently, the necessary means and the range of measures used to effectively control the virus would vary from place to place. And we have been witness to different approaches adopted around the world to maintain the virus under check both in the short term and the long term. Various metrics have been used to mathematically represent the effectiveness of the approaches used. In this work, an attempt is made at determining those metrics for Mauritius and comparing them with that of the rest of the world. We first develop mathematical models of the progression of COVID-19 in Mauritius and in numerous other countries primarily in Europe. An intriguing observation is made when the growth rate and the ceiling value of the mathematical models obtained for different countries are compared. We computed the reproduction number, which showed us how many subjects a contagious individual was infecting on average at the onset of the pandemic in Mauritius. This value in turn allowed the determination of the percentage of the population needing immunity to stop the spread of the virus. The case fatality rate as well as the crude mortality rate for different countries are also compared and contrasted.

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