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Modelling Salmonella Typhi in high-density urban Blantyre neighbourhood, Malawi, using point pattern methods

Article scientifique 2024 Anglais

Résumé

Salmonella Typhi is a human-restricted pathogen that is transmitted by the faecal-oral route and causative organism of typhoid fever. Using health facility data from 2016 to 2020, this study focuses on modelling the spatial variation in typhoid risk in Ndirande township in Blantyre. To pursue this objective, we developed a marked inhomogeneous Poisson process model that allows us to incorporate both individual-level and environmental risk factors. The results from our analysis indicate that typhoid cases are spatially clustered, with the incidence decreasing by 54% for a unit increase in the water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) score. Typhoid intensity was also higher in children aged below 18 years than in adults. However, our results did not show evidence of a strong temporal variation in typhoid incidence. We also discuss the inferential benefits of using point pattern models to characterise the spatial variation in typhoid risk and outline possible extensions of the proposed modelling framework.

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Khaki, J., Meiring, J., Thindwa, D., Henrion, M., Jere, T., Msuku, H., Aryja, A., Maharjan, A., Dongol, S., Karkey, A., Bajracharya, B., Banda, D., Masesa, C., Mbewe, M., Mangulenji, G., Msefula, C., Nyirenda, T., Mujadidi, Y., Voysey, M., Hill, J., Gurung, P., Khan, A., Saha, N., Biswas, P., Adhikari, A., Heyderman, R., Gordon, M., Giorgi, E. (2024). Modelling Salmonella Typhi in high-density urban Blantyre neighbourhood, Malawi, using point pattern methods. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-66436-9

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Auteur(s)

Jessie Jane Khaki James Meiring Deus Thindwa Marc Henrion Tikhala Makhaza Jere Harrison Msuku Amit Aryja Archana Maharjan Sabina Dongol Abhilasha Karkey Binod Lal Bajracharya David Chimbizgani Banda Clemens Masesa Maurice Mbewe George Mangulenji Chisomo Msefula Tonney S. Nyirenda Yama Farooq Mujadidi Merryn Voysey Jennifer W Hill Pallavi Gurung Arifuzzaman Khan Nirod Chandra Saha Prasanta Kumar Biswas Anup Adhikari Robert S. Heyderman Melita A. Gordon Emanuele Giorgi

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