Exploring multifractality in African stock markets: A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis approach

Résumé

This paper investigates the multifractal behavior of the six largest African stock markets, including the Johannesburg, Casablanca, Botswana, Nigerian, Egyptian, and Regional Stock Exchanges. Despite the growing significance of these markets in the global economy, there is limited understanding of their underlying dynamics, particularly regarding their multifractal properties. This lack of knowledge raises concerns about the informational efficiency of these markets, as traditional models may not adequately capture the complexities of price movements. To achieve the goals of the study, the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) method is applied to capture the multifractal dynamics, and shuffling and phase randomization techniques are performed to identify the sources of the multifractality of the six African stock markets. The empirical results, derived from the generalized Hurst exponents, Rényi exponents, and Singularity spectrum, show that all six stock markets display multifractal behavior, characterized by irregular and complex price movements that vary across different scales and timeframes. Additionally, the study finds that both long-term correlations and heavy-tailed distributions contribute to the observed multifractality. Long-term correlations lead to persistent price trends, challenging the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), while heavy tails increase market unpredictability by raising the likelihood of extreme events like crashes or booms. The findings have significant practical implications for stakeholders in African stock markets, enabling investors and portfolio managers to enhance risk assessment and develop effective trading strategies while helping market regulators improve efficiency and stability through appropriate policies. Financial institutions can also refine risk management frameworks to better account for extreme events.

Citer ce document

Accès au document

Texte intégral en lecture en ligne, réservé aux abonnés SPHAERO et aux membres de l'institution. Se connecter

Voir l'article sur le site de la revue

Auteur(s)

Statistiques

Consultations : 1

Téléchargements : 0