Large Scale Crop Suitability Assessment Under Future Climate Using the Ecocrop Model: The Case of Six Provinces in Angola’s Planalto Region

Résumé

In developing and least developed countries (LDCs) such as Angola, where household income and the food security of rural communities is heavily dependent on rain-fed subsistence agriculture, there is a risk that climate change will undermine the potential contributions of the agriculture sector toward national objectives for sustainable development and food security. Furthermore, climate change is likely to alter the spatial variation in crop suitability, thus shifting the dynamics of food production at the district, provincial, national and regional levels. Decision-makers have at their disposal very little agronomic and climate information downscaled and interpreted for the local level, and this poses obstacles to the creation of long-term strategies for climate-resilient agricultural development. To provide this type of information, this study assessed the projected spatial changes in suitability of Angola’s planalto region for production of two staple crops (maize and cassava), in response to future temperature and precipitation changes projected by 29 general circulation models (GCMs). The projected changes to crop suitability indices were calculated for six provinces using the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO’s) EcoCrop analytical tool, and were analysed both in terms of changes in absolute crop suitability as well as changes in spatial distribution of crop-suitable areas. Those changes were aggregated to the province level to support improved integration of information on future suitability of staple crops in each of the six studied provinces. The increased availability and quality of information will support improved decision-making on specific crops, cultivars and farming practices to be promoted as part of a strategy for climate-resilient agricultural and socio-economic development in Angola.

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